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Barcelona headlines Thursday Europa League best bets

Although most of our televisions will probably be tuned to The Masters come Thursday, the Europa League quarterfinals will probably be kicking off throughout the pond.

Headlining the final-eight slate will undoubtedly be Red Bull Leipzig vs. Atalanta BC, however I’m selecting to look elsewhere for my best bets.

So as a way to hopefully assist increase that bankroll for The Masters and MLB Opening Day, listed below are my two best bets throughout the 4 Europa League quarterfinal matches.

Best Bet #1 – FC Barcelona Goal-Line (-1) vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (+130), DraftKings Sportsbook

Since crashing out of the Champions League within the group stage, Barcelona has completely dominated Europa League play.

In 4 continental fixtures, supervisor Xavi’s squad has produced no less than 1.3 anticipated objectives in all 4 and has concurrently allowed below 1.0 anticipated aim in three of these fixtures. Plus, it arrives at Thursday’s go to to Frankfurt on a 13-match unbeaten run (W10-D3) and has created no less than one anticipated aim in all 13 matches.

On the flip-side, its protection has conceded multiple anticipated aim solely thrice and is due for some optimistic defensive regression (10 objectives towards on 8.8 anticipated in these 13 matches). While its assault has overperformed its underlying metrics – 33 objectives on 27.2 anticipated – its assault is creating nearly 0.3 xG/90 greater than its season-long common.


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Now, that potent Barcelona assault receives an Eintracht Frankfurt protection that has conceded the sixth-most anticipated objectives of the ultimate eight groups within the competitors. Further, it has struggled defensively this season towards prime Bundesliga sides + prime Europa League groups. In 12 fixtures towards sides ranked 2-7 in final year’s Bundesliga desk and Europa League knockout spherical contributors this year, Frankfurt is conceding 1.67 xG/90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Additionally, it hasn’t stored a single a kind of 12 sides below one anticipated aim. With Barcelona’s protection enjoying in addition to it’s, count on a simple victory for the guests tomorrow.

Andriy Yarmolenko celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates
Andriy Yarmolenko celebrates scoring their first aim with teammates.
Action Images through Reuters/Ed Sykes

Best Bet #2 – West Ham United/Lyon Both Teams to Score “Yes” (-135), BetMGM

Although this prop didn’t money in West Ham’s two spherical of 16 legs towards Sevilla, the underlying metrics inform a special story.

Both legs featured no less than one anticipated aim from either side, with West Ham underperforming on its underlying metrics drastically (two objectives on 4.1 anticipated). Plus, the Hammers have proved a really dependable BTTS aspect at residence within the Premier League. The “yes” aspect has cashed in 4 of its final six home fixtures and 12 of 16 general.

Further, of the eight remaining Europa League sides, West Ham has notched the third-most anticipated objectives. As for Lyon, it has produced the second-most xG within the competitors and has cashed the “yes” aspect of BTTS in three of its final 4 continental matches.

I’m pretty sure West Ham will be capable of rating right here as Lyon has conceded the fifth-most street anticipated objectives in Ligue 1 and is due for a large quantity of damaging defensive regression (19 street objectives towards on 25 street xG towards).

But, it’s additionally creating the third-most street anticipated objectives, so Lyon ought to be capable of catch out a West Ham protection that has conceded no less than one anticipated aim in six straight fixtures.

Add in that West Ham’s protection hasn’t stored a deserved clear sheet since early February and I imagine this value ought to be nearer to -155.

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