Hovland, Morikawa top Charles Schwab Challenge derivative bets

Having damaged down our statistical modeling technique for the Charles Schwab Challenge, it’s now time to start sharing some finest bets.

We’ll start as all the time with the derivative choices. This week, I’ve recognized 4 choices who I imagine are primed for good finishes at Colonial Country Club primarily based on their mannequin positions and previous performances.

With that in thoughts, listed here are the 4 gamers I’m concentrating on this week. All odds come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Best Bet #1 – Viktor Hovland Top-10 Finish (+290)

Hovland is coming off a disappointing T-Forty first in final week’s PGA Championship, however I imagine Colonial will swimsuit his recreation higher.

In his solely look up to now on the Charles Schwab Challenge, Hovland posted a T-23 end, however ranked twelfth for the week in strokes-gained: tee-to-green. Additionally, in his final 24 rounds performed on programs beneath 7,200 yards, Hovland ranks seventh within the subject in SG: complete.

In phrases of my mannequin, Hovland ranks out second in each my 36- and 50-round projections. If you embody the 24- and 75-round projections, Hovland is available in no worse than fourth.

Viktor Hovland
Viktor Hovland
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Just when it comes to the 36-round mannequin, there’s rather a lot to love about Hovland. He ranks contained in the top-21 within the subject in 9 of 10 statistical measures and is fifteenth or higher within the subject in six of these 9. Most importantly, he’s twelfth in SG: T2G, ninth in strokes-gained: strategy and tenth in birdies or higher gained.

Plus, throughout his final six begins on tour, Hovland has three top-10 finishes. For these causes, I’d play the Norwegian at +200 or higher for a top-10 end.

Best Bet #2 – Collin Morikawa Top-10 Finish (+165)

A course that requires laser-point accuracy with drives and approaches? Sounds like one thing constructed for Morikawa!

The performances for the 2020 PGA champion again up that as he’s completed T-14th in 2021 after posting a runner-up end at Colonial in 2020, shedding in a playoff to eventual winner Daniel Berger. Further, Morikawa does very effectively on quick programs — he’s second within the subject in SG: complete over his final 24 rounds on qualifying programs and ranks seventh in SG: strategy over that span.

Morikawa can also be somebody that ranks out very extremely in my completely different fashions. He’s fourth within the 36-round mannequin and second within the 24-round projection. In phrases of the latter mannequin, Morikawa ranks out no worse than 14th in six of 10 particular person statistics and ranks out tenth or higher in 4 of these six classes.

Collin Morikawa walks to the second green during the third round of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2022 in Augusta, Georgia.
Collin Morikawa
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Plus, though he solely has one top-10 in his final three begins, Morikawa has ranked eighth or higher in two of these three appearances. Given Colonial rewards that stat most closely when it comes to ending position correlation, count on a powerful efficiency from the Cal product.

Based on my modeling, I’d play Morikawa at +140 or higher on this market.

Best Bet #3 – Daniel Berger Top-20 Finish (+155)

To me, that is the right time to purchase low on Berger, a former winner at this occasion with strong outcomes on quick programs.

In addition to his win in 2020, Berger completed in a tie for twentieth in 2021. Plus, the latter effort noticed him rank seven spots greater in SG: strategy than his ending position, so bettors ought to place confidence in Berger and his iron recreation.

In phrases of my mannequin, Berger is first total within the subject in the entire 24- and 36- and 50-round mannequin projections. Add within the 12-, 75- and 100-round fashions and bettors will discover Berger ranks out no worse than second within the subject. In inspecting the 24-round mannequin, Berger paces the sector in three classes – SG: T2G, SG: Par 4’s and Proximity: 150-175 yards. He additionally ranks fifth in SG: strategy, eleventh in GIRs gained and thirteenth in birdies or higher gained.

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Plus, though he doesn’t personal a top-20 end in any of his final three begins, his final 5 begins at programs beneath 7200 yards have seen Berger end 21-4-8-20-13. Further, simply in his final seven begins at Colonial and its two most carefully correlated tour programs — Harbour Town and TPC Southwind — Berger owns six top-20 finishes with the lone exception a T21.

For all these causes, I’d play Berger at +110 or higher for a top-20 end.

Best Bet #4 – Cameron Davis Top-40 Finish (+160)

Davis is coming off a strong exhibiting on the PGA Championship (T-Forty eighth) and now finds himself at a extra favorable setup.

This is strictly a mannequin play on Davis, who’s often a growth or bust candidate. In his final two occasions on tracks shorter than 7,200 yards — the Wells Fargo and the RBC Heritage — Davis posted a missed reduce and a T3, respectively. In his 4 earlier occasions at qualifying programs, Davis went 27-MC-45-26.

But, he ranks seventeenth total in my 36-round mannequin, twenty eighth total in my 24-round projection and twenty second total in my 12-round mannequin. He’s additionally twenty second within the subject in SG: complete over his final 24 qualifying rounds on this course sort and has now gained strokes on strategy in 5 of his final six occasions.

Going again to the 36-round mannequin, there’s not rather a lot to alarm bettors. Although he’s 84th in fairways gained and 83rd in GIRs gained, Davis ranks thirteenth within the subject in SG: T2G, fifth in SG: Par 4’s, second in birdies or higher gained and first in placing from 10-15 toes.

As a consequence, I count on a powerful end from the Aussie this week at Colonial.

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