Sports

How to model Charles Schwab Challenge

Following some late drama, Justin Thomas claimed the 2022 PGA Championship in a playoff over Will Zalatoris.

Now, we flip our consideration to the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. This week options one other loaded discipline with three OWGR top-five gamers and 5 gamers from the OWGR top-10.

Thomas (+1100) arrives because the pre-tournament favourite whereas Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (+1200) carefully follows. Rounding out the top-five on the percentages board are Jordan Spieth (+1400), Collin Morikawa (+1800) and Viktor Hovland (+2000).

Before we share our greatest bets, although, we’ll start as all the time with a statistical modeling method for Colonial. In addition to the 5 key stats larger than 10 p.c emphasis) I’m prioritizing this week, I’ve included some subsets (lower than 10 p.c emphasis) to assist refine the model. Additionally, I’ve added one qualifier — programs lower than 7200 yards — to additional specify the outcomes.


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Stat #1 – Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green (15 p.c emphasis)

Subset: Fairways Gained (5 p.c emphasis)

The fairways are usually not very huge at Colonial Country Club — solely 27 yards huge, nearly seven yards shorter than the tour common — so gamers will want a robust driving sport.

Additionally, within the final 12 rounds performed at Colonial Country Club, hitting the green was categorised as “difficult” and solely certified as “easy” in two of the 12 complete rounds. The tee-to-green stat additionally has a robust correlation with ending position as three straight winners have ranked out fourth or higher for the week in that stat with two of the final three and three of the final 4 rating second or higher for the week.

Gaining fairways can also be considerably indicative as two of the final 4 winners ranked seventh or higher in that stat for the week.

Here are the SG: T2G leaders during the last 36 rounds with betting odds for the week:

  1. Daniel Berger (+3300)
  2. Justin Thomas (+1100)
  3. Sungjae Im (+3300)
  4. Webb Simpson (+4000)
  5. Collin Morikawa (+1800)

Stat #2 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (17 p.c emphasis)

Subset: Proximity – 150 to 175 yards (5 p.c emphasis)

Just like each different week on tour, method play goes to be hyper-important on the Charles Schwab Challenge.

The greens are fairly small at Colonial — solely about 5,000 sq. ft on common as in contrast to 6,600 sq. ft because the tour common. Plus, there’s a robust correlation between SG: method and general ending position. Per datagolf.com, there’s a 64 p.c correlation between ending position and gamers’ rating on this statistical class.

Further, three of the final 4 winners at this occasion have ranked fifth or higher in SG: method for the week. As for the subset, that refinement relies on the actual fact a plurality of approaches (21 p.c to be precise) come from that distance.

Here are the SG: Approach leaders during the last 36 rounds with their betting odds for the week:

  1. Justin Thomas (+1100)
  2. Daniel Berger (+3300)
  3. Collin Morikawa (+1800)
  4. Russell Knox (+10000)
  5. Harold Varner III (+5000)
Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas
AP

Stat #3 – Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s (16 p.c emphasis)

Subset: Par-4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (6 p.c emphasis)

Just like final week at Southern Hills, par-4 scoring goes to be essential at Colonial. The Par-70 options 12 such holes and actually just one gettable Par 5.

As anticipated, Charles Schwab winners have confirmed very environment friendly on these 12 holes as 4 straight have completed fourth or higher in Par 4 effectivity for the event.

In phrases of the subset, seven of these 12 aforementioned Par 4’s fall in between that vary on the scorecard with three of seven having performed beneath par for the week in 2021. In reality, just one had a mean rating of upper than 4.1, so there ought to be some scoring alternatives for gamers on these holes.

Here are the SG: Par 4 leaders during the last 36 rounds with their betting odds for the week:

  1. Daniel Berger (+3300)
  2. Justin Thomas (+1100)
  3. Sungjae Im (+3300)
  4. Bryson DeChambeau (+8000)
  5. Cameron Davis (+10000)

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Stat #4 – Birdies or Better Gained (15 p.c emphasis)

This event normally doesn’t see lots of winners attain -20 or decrease, but it surely does have a tendency to see a low-scoring winner.

Four straight winners have reached -13 or decrease at Colonial whereas each winner since 2015 has reached not less than -10. Additionally, the final 4 winners at Colonial — Jason Kokrak, Daniel Berger, Kevin Na and Justin Rose — all ranked out second or higher in birdies or higher gained for the week.

It’s additionally price noting right here that seven of Colonial’s 18 holes play beneath par on common whereas all however 5 have a birdie proportion of 15 p.c or increased.

Here are the birdie or higher gained leaders during the last 36 rounds with their betting odds for the week:

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+8000)
  2. Cameron Davis (+10000)
  3. Justin Thomas (+1100)
  4. Kevin Na (+5000)
  5. Erik Van Rooyen (+10000)

Stat #5 – Greens in Regulation Gained (11 p.c emphasis)

Subsets: Putting – 5 to 10 ft (5 p.c emphasis), Putting – 10 to 15 ft (5 p.c emphasis)

Considering the aforementioned small greens at Colonial, a capability to have an correct method that efficiently avoids considered one of 84 course bunkers will show big.

Plus, even from a top-five end to profitable, there’s a large soar in greens in regulation gained. A top-five completed will common about 1.14 greens in regulation gained on common whereas a winner will common 1.6 greens in regulation gained on common.

From there, I need to consider putters who’ve beforehand demonstrated success from the posted distances. At Colonial, a mixed 43.7 of birdie or higher putts are made out of between 5 and 15 ft. Further, two of the final three tournaments noticed the greens qualify as “fast” on the stimpmeter, so a strong placing contact is essential this week.

Here are the GIRs gained leaders during the last 36 rounds with their betting odds for the week:

  1. Russell Knox (+10000)
  2. Collin Morikawa (+1800)
  3. Adam Svensson (+30000)
  4. Bryson DeChambeau (+8000)
  5. Harold Varner III (+5000)
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