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WGC Dell Technologies best match bets: Go with Dustin Johnson

Having shared my best group futures bets for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, it’s time to show our consideration to the person matches.

Wednesday’s card options a variety of high-profile matchups at Austin Country Club. Just a few notables are Scottie Scheffler vs. Ian Poulter, Matt Fitzpatrick vs. Tommy Fleetwood and Keegan Bradley vs. Jordan Spieth.

But which matches ought to bettors focus their consideration on throughout the 32-match betting board? He are my two best bets for Wednesday’s slate. Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

Best Bet No. 1: Abraham Ancer Tie, No Bet (-130) vs. Bubba Watson

Watson superior additional on this event than Ancer final year, however the underlying metrics counsel the Mexican worldwide was the superior participant.

Per datagolf.com, Watson gained a complete of +0.91 strokes on the sphere throughout the occasion whereas Ancer amassed +1.42 strokes on final year’s discipline at this similar venue.

Beyond that development, there are a number of different components supporting an Ancer victory Wednesday. First is that my mannequin tasks Ancer to suit this course by a a lot wider margin. He arrives at Austin Country Club fourth total in my 36-round mannequin whereas Watson ranks 57th in the identical projection.

Bubba Watson
Bubba Watson
Getty Images

Additionally, Ancer ranks third or higher within the discipline in SG: APP, SG: T2G and Good Drives Gained over the past 36 rounds. In these three classes, Watson sits sixtieth, 53rd and forty first, respectively.

Lastly, Ancer has the superior historic precedent when it comes to his file at Pete Dye designs. He’s gained strokes on the sphere each tee-to-green and in method in two occasions this year at Dye designs whereas Watson has traditionally struggled at Pete Dye designs.

Ancer ought to be capable to maintain his ball in good positions off the tee, whereas Watson’s tendency to supply some wayward drives ought to present a bonus to the favourite Wednesday.

Best Bet No. 2: Dustin Johnson (-135) vs. Mackenzie Hughes

The one caveat to notice with this wager is {that a} tie is its personal consequence — therefore the low cost on Johnson — so within the occasion the match finishes stage this might lose as an alternative of push.

But, I’ve sufficient religion in Johnson that I’m prepared to imagine that danger. The two-time main winner enters Austin Country Club eighth in my 36-round mannequin projection whereas Mackenzie Hughes doesn’t arrive within the best kind. He has missed two straight cuts on the Players Championship and the Valspar Championship and has solely made two cuts in 2022.

Furthermore, the Canadian has lost strokes off the tee in six straight occasions. Put all that collectively and Hughes sits 58th in my 36-round mannequin.

Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson
AP

The one class during which Hughes does rank out barely nicely — twentieth in strokes gained: placing — will doubtless be mitigated by Johnson’s placing on Bermuda grass. Over his final 36 rounds, Johnson sits fifth in the identical class and has gained strokes placing in 4 straight occasions at Dye designs.

But the largest discrepancy between these two gamers comes within the Birdies or Better Gained class. Johnson ranks first within the discipline in that class whereas Hughes sits all the best way down in 53rd.

If Hughes is unable to resolve his points off the tee, I don’t count on he’ll have many probabilities at birdie. As a consequence, I count on a dependable efficiency from DJ, particularly contemplating his 5-0-0 file on the Ryder Cup this previous fall and the actual fact he’s a previous winner at this occasion.

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